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Match results study
- Temas:
In this article, we'll be analyzing a database which consists of more than 21,000 matches, and we'll analyze their results, taking into account some of the circumstances that might affect their results. However, we won't be drawing any conclusions - instead, we'll just show the stats from all kind of real matches which took place in 2009 and 2010.
We hope that you don't draw any more conclusions from this than what you would get from any other piece of statistical data. That said, here's the first set of information. Walk-over matches are not included.
In the following table, you can see how often a certain match result appears. For instance, if you want to know how often matches end in 2-3, you should look at row 2, column 3. Once you've done this, you'll notice that a match has a probability of 2,5 % of ending with 2-3 as its result.
| H/V | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2,2% | 3,8% | 4,1% | 3,4% | 2,9% | 2,2% | 1,6% | 1,2% | 1,0% | 0,8% | 0,5% | 0,2% |
| 1 | 4,4% | 3,6% | 4,4% | 3,0% | 2,2% | 1,3% |
0,7% | 0,4% | 0,2% | 0,1% | 0,1% | 0,0% |
| 2 | 5,0% |
5,1% | 2,7% | 2,5% | 1,3% | 0,6% | 0,3% | 0,1% | 0,1% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 3 | 4,8% | 3,9% | 2,5% | 1,1% | 0,7% | 0,3% | 0,1% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 4 | 3,8% | 2,9% | 1,4% | 1,0% | 0,2% | 0,2% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 5 | 2,7% | 1,8% | 0,8% | 0,4% | 0,2% | 0,0% | 0,1% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 6 | 2,0% | 1,0% | 0,4% | 0,2% | 0,1% | 0,1% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 7 | 1,5% | 0,5% | 0,2% |
0,1% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 8 | 0,9% | 0,3% | 0,1% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 9 | 0,7% | 0,2% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 10 | 0,5% | 0,1% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 11 | 0,1% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
This table includes matches with extra time and/or penalties.
The colours in the table indicate the likelihood of each result. Green is used for the most common results and red, for the uncommon ones. Those results with a probability which is less than 0,05% aren't shown in the table or are shown as 0,0%.
Let's now see how much teams are affected by playing at their stadium or away, just by looking at their results.
| Kind of match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normals | 49,9% | 9,7% | 40,4% |
| Derbies | 45,5% | 9,7% | 44,9% |
This table does not include matches played in neutral ground. Results are shown as a percentage; 1 means victory for the local team; X, a draw, and 2, victory for the visiting team.
Now, let's look at the local team's goal difference - again, taking into account normal matches and derbies.
| Difference | Normal matches | Derbies |
|---|---|---|
| +6 o sup. | 6,8% | 6,1% |
| +5 | 3,9% | 3,6% |
| +4 | 6,2% | 5,3% |
| +3 | 8,8% | 7,7% |
| +2 | 10,9% | 9,2% |
| +1 | 13,2% | 13,5% |
| 0 | 9,7% | 9,7% |
| -1 | 11,8% | 10,9% |
| -2 | 8,7% | 8,7% |
| -3 | 6,4% | 7,2% |
| -4 | 4,4% | 4,6% |
| -5 | 3,0% | 3,8% |
| -6 o sup. | 6,0% | 9,7% |
This table does not include matches played in neutral ground. Results are shown as a percentage. The results which start by "+" are those in which the local team wins; meanwhile, the ones starting by "-" are the ones in which it loses.
We have already seen statistical data about how important it is to play at home or away in both normal matches and derbies, which influences the midfield level of the local team (normal matches) or both teams (derbies).
Speaking about midfield, let's look at a new table to find out how it affects match results, without taking into account attack or defence. Let's see the percentage of wins, losses and draws for each midfield ratio.
| Midfield ratio | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0% a 4,99% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 100,0% |
| 5% a 9,99% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 100,0% |
| 10% a 14,99% | 1,2% | 2,4% | 96,5% |
| 15% a 19,99% | 0,9% | 1,9% | 97,2% |
| 20% a 24,99% | 2,9% | 1,0% | 96,2% |
| 25% a 29,99% | 4,6% | 2,8% | 92,6% |
| 30% a 34,99% | 6,9% | 5,2% | 87,9% |
| 35% a 39,99% | 9,2% | 7,1% | 83,7% |
| 40% a 44,99% | 16,7% | 8,6% | 74,7% |
| 45% a 49,99% | 28,4% | 12,1% | 59,6% |
| 50% a 54,99% | 48,4% | 14,0% | 37,5% |
| 55% a 59,99% | 66,9% | 11,5% | 21,5% |
| 60% a 64,99% | 75,0% | 10,2% | 14,7% |
| 65% a 69,99% | 81,5% | 8,4% | 10,1% |
| 70% a 74,99% | 84,3% | 7,3% | 8,4% |
| 75% a 79,99% | 89,2% | 5,8% | 5,0% |
| 80% a 84,99% | 93,0% | 3,8% | 3,2% |
| 85% a 89,99% | 95,2% | 2,6% | 2,2% |
| 90% a 94,99% | 92,6% | 1,9% | 5,6% |
| 95% a 100% | 100,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
This table includes all kind of matches, excepting walkovers. Results are shown as percentages. 1 stands for a local team victory, X means a draw and 2 stands for a visiting team victory.
It's obvious that for some reason, the midfield level has a major effect on match results, as teams with higher midfield ratios will win most matches.
However, midfield is not everything, and that's why we are going to study the effect of the other lines on match results.
Let's start with defence levels. We'll only use a certain midfield ratio, so as not to distort the results. We'll only use these matches in which the midfield ratio ranges from 50 % to 54,99 %.
Once that was done, we calculated the ratios for the three defence levels against the three attack levels of the rival. For instance, if our defending ratios are 55%, 60% and 56%, then our average defence ratio is 57%.
Let's look at the results on the following table.
| Average defence ratio | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0% a 19,99% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 100,0% |
| 20% a 29,99% | 13,5% | 5,4% | 81,1% |
| 30% a 39,99% | 22,2% | 9,1% | 68,7% |
| 40% a 49,99% | 31,3% | 13,7% | 55,0% |
| 50% a 59,99% | 47,2% | 14,6% | 38,2% |
| 60% a 69,99% | 61,8% | 14,6% | 23,6% |
| 70% a 79,99% | 71,6% | 12,6% | 15,8% |
| 80% a 100% | 71,2% | 21,2% | 7,6% |
This table includes all kinds of matches, excepting walkovers. These matches in which the local team's midfield is higher than 55 % nor lower than 50 %. Results are shown as percentages; "1" stands for a local team victory, "X" means a draw and "2" stands for a visiting team victory.
In the previous table, it can be seen that the average defence ratio has a relevant effect on match results, although not as high as midfield ratios.
We'll now repeat the same operation, although this time we will be studying attack ratios (compared to local defences).
| Average attack ratio | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0% a 19,99% | 5,6% | 22,2% | 72,2% |
| 20% a 29,99% | 22,5% | 13,4% | 64,1% |
| 30% a 39,99% | 37,4% | 13,7% | 48,8% |
| 40% a 49,99% | 53,6% | 15,7% | 30,6% |
| 50% a 59,99% | 70,0% | 11,5% | 18,5% |
| 60% a 69,99% | 76,3% | 6,1% | 17,5% |
| 70% a 79,99% | 88,2% | 0,0% | 11,8% |
| 80% a 100% | No dates | ||
This table includes all kinds of matches, excepting walkovers. These matches in which the local team's midfield is higher than 55 % nor lower than 50 %. Results are shown as percentages; "1" stands for a local team victory, "X" means a draw and "2" stands for a visiting team victory.
At this time, we have already seen the influence of all lines, one by one - now we'll do the same, but all the lines at the same time. It would be way too long if they were separated by ratios, so we will only indicate whether the ratio was higher or lower than 50 % (except the midfield ratio, which will always be higher than 50 %). Green cells indicate that our ratio is higher than 50 %; the red ones are the cases in which it was lower than 50 %. We won't distinguish between left and right attack and defence, so in the table there's only central attack/defence and lateral attack/defence. Let's now look at the resulting table.
| Midfield | LD | CD | LD | LA | CA | LA | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O | X | X | X | X | X | X | 31,8% | 11,1% | 57,1% |
| O | X | O | X | X | X | X | 41,7% | 15,7% | 42,6% |
| O | O | X | O | X | X | X | 45,7% | 17,6% | 36,7% |
| O | O | O | O | X | X | X | 66,6% | 14,6% | 18,8% |
| O | X | X | X | O | X | X | 56,6% | 12,0% | 31,3% |
| O | X | X | X | X | O | X | 59,1% | 10,6% | 30,3% |
| O | X | X | X | O | O | X | 59,4% | 13,0% | 27,5% |
| O | X | X | X | O | X | O | 66,7% | 11,1% | 22,2% |
| O | X | X | X | O | O | O | 85,5% | 6,5% | 8,1% |
| O | X | O | X | O | X | X | 70,8% | 8,3% | 20,8% |
| O | X | O | X | X | O | X | 65,9% | 4,5% | 29,5% |
| O | X | O | X | O | O | X | 87,9% | 6,1% | 6,1% |
| O | X | O | X | O | X | O | 90,0% | 0,0% | 10,0% |
| O | X | O | X | O | O | O | 82,4% | 2,9% | 14,7% |
| O | O | X | O | O | X | X | 63,6% | 7,5% | 29,0% |
| O | O | X | O | X | O | X | 73,1% | 15,4% | 11,5% |
| O | O | X | O | O | O | X | 80,5% | 4,9% | 14,6% |
| O | O | X | O | O | X | O | 73,7% | 15,8% | 10,5% |
| O | O | X | O | O | O | O | 88,6% | 4,5% | 6,8% |
| O | O | O | O | O | X | X | 84,1% | 8,5% | 7,4% |
| O | O | O | O | X | O | X | 94,5% | 2,6% | 3,0% |
| O | O | O | O | O | O | X | 91,5% | 3,6% | 4,9% |
| O | O | O | O | O | X | O | 97,0% | 1,5% | 1,5% |
| O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 99,0% | 0,8% | 0,2% |
This table includes all kinds of matches, excepting walkovers. Results are shown as percentages; "1" stands for a local team victory, "X" means a draw and "2" stands for a visiting team victory.
Match results are consistent with what you would expect - the more ratios over 50% you have, the more likely it is to win matches. However, the previous table isn't really clear, as we don't really know the actual ratios from all the matches. That's why we are showing another table in which we analyze the most common case in Hattrick - having a defence ratio higher than 50% and an attack ratio lower than 50%. As before, we'll analyze the cases from the perspective of the team with the highest midfield rating, and we'll use different ratios so as to see how they affect match results.
| Midfield | LD | CD | LD | LA | CA | LA | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +50% | +50% | +50% | +50% | -50% | -50% | -50% | 66,6% | 14,6% | 18,8% |
| +50% | +50% | +50% | +50% | -40% | -40% | -40% | 51,1% | 20,2% | 28,8% |
| +50% | +50% | +50% | +50% | -30% | -30% | -30% | 42,1% | 20,1% | 37,9% |
| +50% | +60% | +60% | +60% | -50% | -50% | -50% | 73,5% | 13,8% | 12,7% |
| +50% | +60% | +60% | +60% | -40% | -40% | -40% | 58,0% | 20,7% | 21,4% |
| +50% | +60% | +60% | +60% | -30% | -30% | -30% | 44,4% | 22,2% | 33,3% |
| +50% | +70% | +70% | +70% | -50% | -50% | -50% | 75,1% | 13,7% | 11,1% |
| +50% | +70% | +70% | +70% | -40% | -40% | -40% | 59,8% | 18,9% | 21,2% |
| +50% | +70% | +70% | +70% | -30% | -30% | -30% | 37,7% | 24,5% | 37,7% |
| +55% | +50% | +50% | +50% | -50% | -50% | -50% | 71,0% | 13,6% | 15,4% |
| +55% | +50% | +50% | +50% | -40% | -40% | -40% | 55,4% | 19,2% | 25,4% |
| +55% | +50% | +50% | +50% | -30% | -30% | -30% | 45,0% | 19,4% | 35,6% |
| +55% | +60% | +60% | +60% | -50% | -50% | -50% | 76,2% | 12,8% | 11,0% |
| +55% | +60% | +60% | +60% | -40% | -40% | -40% | 61,6% | 19,3% | 19,0% |
| +55% | +60% | +60% | +60% | -30% | -30% | -30% | 46,9% | 21,4% | 31,6% |
| +55% | +70% | +70% | +70% | -50% | -50% | -50% | 78,5% | 12,5% | 9,0% |
| +55% | +70% | +70% | +70% | -40% | -40% | -40% | 63,4% | 18,8% | 17,9% |
| +55% | +70% | +70% | +70% | -30% | -30% | -30% | 40,9% | 22,7% | 36,4% |
| +60% | +50% | +50% | +50% | -50% | -50% | -50% | 74,6% | 12,6% | 12,8% |
| +60% | +50% | +50% | +50% | -40% | -40% | -40% | 57,6% | 19,5% | 22,9% |
| +60% | +50% | +50% | +50% | -30% | -30% | -30% | 44,0% | 20,0% | 36,0% |
| +60% | +60% | +60% | +60% | -50% | -50% | -50% | 79,7% | 11,5% | 8,9% |
| +60% | +60% | +60% | +60% | -40% | -40% | -40% | 64,8% | 19,3% | 16,0% |
| +60% | +60% | +60% | +60% | -30% | -30% | -30% | 48,5% | 21,2% | 30,3% |
| +60% | +70% | +70% | +70% | -50% | -50% | -50% | 80,4% | 12,0% | 7,7% |
| +60% | +70% | +70% | +70% | -40% | -40% | -40% | 66,2% | 19,5% | 14,3% |
| +60% | +70% | +70% | +70% | -30% | -30% | -30% | 44,0% | 28,0% | 28,0% |
This table includes all kinds of matches, excepting walkovers. Results are shown as percentages; "1" stands for a local team victory, "X" means a draw and "2" stands for a visiting team victory.
Once we have analyzed how our team ratings affect match results, let's look into another factor which has an impact on match results - special events.
This table is rather different to the previous ones, as we won't be taking into account any team ratings. Instead, we will only be taking into account the number of special events which each team had. Columns indicate the number of special event goals which each team scored, and the percentages for wins, draws and losses.
| Home SEVer? | Visitors SE | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0 | 100,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 2 | 1 | 100,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 2 | 0 | 89,8% | 6,1% | 4,1% |
| 1 | 2 | 37,5% | 0,0% | 62,5% |
| 1 | 1 | 46,3% | 8,5% | 45,1% |
| 1 | 0 | 70,8% | 8,2% | 21,0% |
| 0 | 2 | 7,5% | 9,4% | 83,0% |
| 0 | 1 | 26,7% | 9,9% | 63,4% |
| 0 | 0 | 51,1% | 12,6% | 36,2% |
This table includes all kinds of matches, excepting walkovers. It only includes matches played in September 2010 and October 2010. Results are shown as percentages; "1" stands for a local team victory, "X" means a draw and "2" stands for a visiting team victory.
All the previous things considered, keep in mind that our final team ratings only show the average value of them during the match. That's why you need to remember that our final team ratings aren't really consistent with the way the match develops.
Thanks to N4D13 for translate.
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