Weather Study

Posted Thu, 06/08/2009 - 23:09 by Raphix
Estudio
As you know, there are many occasions where the weather can affect positively or negatively to the development of the matches. This is the simple fact that there are players with some or other specialties, some of which make those who possess them, are directly affected.
 
Thus, we have taken our "little" database of 45,000 matches and we have noticed how often there is a climate or another, in order to have some basis for or sign players to align with any specialty that is affected by it.

In this way we obtained the following table:

 

Data Base1 Soleado Cubierto Nublado Lluvioso Total
Number of Matches 7550 13936 17246 6165 44897
% of Matches 16,82%  31,04%  38,41%  13,73% 100%

 

However, I used to contrast these data to other 3 databases something smaller, to verify that the percentages were repeated again. The data extracted:

 

Database 2 Soleado Cubierto Nublado Lluvioso Total
Number of Matches 3090 6376 5648 3105 18219
% of Matches 16,96% 35% 31% 17,04% 100%

 

Database 3 Soleado Cubierto Nublado Lluvioso Total
Number of Matches 2728 5752 5259 2867 16606
% of Matches 16,43% 34,64% 31,67% 17,26% 100%

 

Database 4 Soleado Cubierto Nublado Lluvioso Total
Number of Matches 4213 8329 8378 4066 24986
% of Matches 16,86% 33,34% 33,53% 16,27 100%

 

In view of the 4 tables, the question is not clear from the beginning, although the percentages may be more approximate:

 

Soleado Cubierto Nublado Lluvioso
16,5% 33,5% 33,5% 16,5%

 

To complement this table, I commented on the theory of pitillin rates which, for simplicity and logic that lead us to them, seem to be most correct.

 

 

As the weather has only 4 options (rainy - cloudy - partly cloudy - sunny) and can only move between adjacent, then logically there are twice as likely as the weather is cloudy or partially cloudy, as the other two options. Because they are the two central positions.

Therefore the correct percentages are 16.67% -33.33% -33.33% -16.67%.

 

 

With this in mind, one could say that 1 of every 3 matches is possible that a climatic event. Is quite another to do so, as this will depend on whether players are aligned likely to benefit from such events. These players are quickly , powerful and technical.

 

Then again take as a reference database 1 to ascertain the number of weather events that took place in them

 

Lluvioso 6165 Matches Local Team Visitor Team % Local % Visitor
Powerful Pro 1319 1365 21,39% 22,14%
Powerful Against 0 0 0% 0%
Technical Pro 0 0 0% 0%
Technical Against 1284 1318 20,83% 21,38%
Quickly Against 1518 1531 24,62% 24,83%

 

Soleado 7550 Matches Local Team Visitor Team % Local % Visitor
Powerful Pro 0 0 0% 0%
Powerful Against 1010 1019 13,38% 13,5%
Technical Pro 1763 1745 23,35% 23,11%
Technical Against 0 0 0% 0%
Quickly Against 1126 1214 14,91% 16,08%

 

Now let's check how each type of specialist teams lined both local and visitors.

 

Lluvioso 6165 Matches Local Team Visitor Team
Powerful 4726 4705
Technical 4622 4799
Quickly 5512 5749

 

Soleado 7550 Matches Local Team Visitor Team
Powerful 5774 5818
Technical 5715 7141
Quickly 6639 5913

 

In view of this, now show other tables in which you can see the probability of the occurrence of a climatic event, depending on the specialist and always bearing in mind the data we have seen from the beginning. Shows the data from local and visiting teams, separated by a hyphen.

 

Lluvioso
Specialist
 Events Probability
Powerful Pro 4726 - 4705 1319 - 1365 27,9% - 29,01%
Powerful Against 4726 - 4705 0 - 0 0%
Technical Pro 4622 - 4799 0 - 0 0%
Technical Against 4622 - 4799 1284 - 1318 27,78% - 27,46%
Quickly Against 5512 - 5749 1518 - 1531 27,54% - 26,63%

 

Soleado Specialist Events Probability
Powerful Pro 5774 - 5818 0 - 0 0%
Powerful Against 5774 - 5818 1010 - 1019 17,49% - 17,51%
Technical Pro 5715 - 7141 1763 - 1745 30,85% - 24,44%
Technical Against 5715 - 7141 0 - 0 0%
Quickly Against 6339 - 5913 1126 - 1214 17,76% - 20,53%

 

As a supplement, then you can see some tables that show how each matches, in general, tends to appear a climatic event of each type. Logically, it should be the appropriate climate and have specialists in the field for the event . But the tables below are made with any matches, to have or not aligned and specialists in all weathers. Come on, a simple statistical test taken with all sorts of matches.

 

Lluvioso Periodicity
Powerful Pro  21,54 Each Matches
Powerful Against Never
Technical Pro Never
Technical Against 22,63 Each Matches
Quickly Against 23,08 Each Matches

 

Soleado Periodicity
Powerful Pro Never
Powerful Against  35,71 Each Matches
Technical Pro  22,91Each Matches
Technical Against Never
Quickly Against 32,81 Each Matches

 

To conclude the study, we will make a short summary of the data extracted.

  • We know that players prone to weather events are powerful, quickly and technical.
  • These events occur with sun and rain.
  • We know that every 10 matches, will be sun between 1 and 2 matches and rain in the same proportion.
  • We know that these 3 matches with sun or rain, the statistics say that climate event usually between 15 and 25% of them, which is the same as that in 1 game in 20.
  • We know that the weather events occur in 3 out of 10 matches in which the conditions are ideal.

Although the data showed that seem closer to reality, you should know that these are just statistics and not met, are only of value orientation

 

However, if your fast player takes 22 matcheswithout suffering a negative event and the next match is in the rain, I thought before putting it :-))

 

Thanks to N4D13 for translate.

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